What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
Gentile Arena · November 15, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread LUC -11.5 Away covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money LUC -700 / UIC +600
Model Predictions
Spread Total LUC win
Actual UIC +5 139 Lost
Massey LUC -7.7 (-12.7) — —
Massey Totals — 143.4 (-4.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 73% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 71% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LUC -2.6 (-7.6) 140.7 (-1.7) 48% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML LUC -5.4 (-10.4) 141.3 (-2.3) 67% ✗
Baseline ML LUC -5.3 (-10.3) 142.8 (-3.8) 71% ✗
Baseline Plus ML LUC -5.0 (-10.0) 143.0 (-4.0) 63% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 12, 2022 LUC 70 – 63 UIC
Nov 20, 2021 LUC 80 – 63 UIC
Dec 13, 2020 LUC 77 – 66 UIC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LUC UIC
Overall 23-10 12-21
Conference 15-3 4-16
Home 15-2 6-9
Away 7-5 3-10
Neutral 1-3 3-2
Last 5 1-1 1-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 71.8 69.4
Avg Pts Against 67.6 72.3
Massey -1.1 (#205) 1.9 (#137)
Bradley-Terry -0.56 (#230) 0.48 (#136)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.75 (#229) 0.88 (#118)
RPI 0.281 (#278) 0.729 (#53)
Shooting & Four Factors LUC UIC
FG% 51.4% 45.8%
3PT% 37.5% 32.4%
REB / G 32.0 38.5
OREB / G 5.0 10.0
AST / TO 1.14 0.69
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 60.0% 50.8%
TOV% 20.0% 20.2%
ORB% 18.5% 28.6%
FT Rate 23.8% 20.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.6% 43.9%
Opp TOV% 16.5% 15.7%
DRB% 67.5% 69.5%
Opp FT Rate 20.8% 19.1%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.