Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -23.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | NU -10000 WMU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +4 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | NU -19.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -15.3 (-11.3) | 131.5 (-9.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -12.5 (-8.5) | 141.5 (-19.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -13.5 (-9.5) | 141.7 (-19.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -13.3 (-9.3) | 136.0 (-14.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#227) | -10.6 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#97) | -3.57 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#100) | -5.07 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#63) | 0.062 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.8% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 53.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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