Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -29.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | TCU -100000 RGV +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +33 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -28.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -20.9 (+12.1) | 155.0 (-12.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -28.4 (+4.6) | 156.6 (-13.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 2-18 |
| Home | 12-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L14 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#21) | -7.0 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#46) | -1.06 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#35) | -1.60 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#87) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.3% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 16.7% |
| REB / G | 46.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.9% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 46.2% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 62.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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