Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MISS -4500 DETM +1550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +1 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -21.8 (-20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -13.8 (-12.8) | 138.6 (+0.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -14.6 (-13.6) | 136.8 (+2.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -17.3 (-16.3) | 136.7 (+2.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -19.0 (-18.0) | 137.6 (+1.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 1-31 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 1-19 |
| Home | 14-4 | 1-11 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-20 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#219) | -13.2 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#118) | -0.56 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#120) | -0.77 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#153) | 0.604 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 24.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 11.2% | 26.1% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 12.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.4% | 60.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 60.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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