Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | SDSU -1000 LBSU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +12 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -14.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -10.2 (+1.8) | 144.6 (+19.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -9.4 (+2.6) | 141.7 (+22.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -10.9 (+1.1) | 142.3 (+21.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -9.7 (+2.3) | 145.7 (+18.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 5, 2025 | SDSU 77 – 45 LBSU |
| Dec 1, 2021 | SDSU 72 – 47 LBSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#40) | 3.5 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#167) | 0.80 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#161) | 1.03 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#27) | 0.550 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 34.8% |
Game Analysis
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