Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -21.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | VT -4000 CAM +1450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +16 | 104 | Won |
| Massey | VT -20.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-39.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -16.8 (-0.8) | 137.9 (-33.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -20.4 (-4.4) | 141.9 (-37.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -20.1 (-4.1) | 136.8 (-32.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#42) | -2.3 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#262) | -0.28 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#249) | -0.47 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#236) | 0.312 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.62 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.6% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 11.9% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 36.0% | 44.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 11.8% |
Game Analysis
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