North Texas
Mean Green
52
–
53
FINAL
Neutral
Shriners Children's Charleston Classic
St. John's
Red Storm
Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UNT +196 SJU -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +1 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -4.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (-52.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -4.0 (-5.0) | 140.5 (-35.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -2.8 (-3.8) | 145.3 (-40.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -2.3 (-3.3) | 147.9 (-42.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -3.7 (-4.7) | 143.3 (-38.3) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#185) | -4.9 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#108) | -0.98 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#111) | -1.37 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#169) | 0.429 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 45.2% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 44.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 22.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.5% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 53.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 59.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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