Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UMES +350 LONG -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +19 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | UMES -9.2 (-28.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -3.4 (-22.4) | 147.6 (-6.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -6.0 (-25.0) | 145.3 (-4.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -2.5 (-21.5) | 144.0 (-3.0) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | UMES 83 – 82 LONG |
| Dec 6, 2024 | LONG 80 – 76 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 6-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 0-15 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#183) | 0.1 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#174) | -1.34 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#177) | -1.96 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#122) | 0.000 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.8% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 21.7% | 17.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 21.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.6% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 50.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 45.0% | 13.6% |
Game Analysis
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