Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -5000 UMES +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +1 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -16.6 (-17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (+37.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -12.7 (-13.7) | 134.8 (+30.2) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -11.5 (-12.5) | 130.1 (+34.9) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -12.3 (-13.3) | 130.5 (+34.5) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -12.6 (-13.6) | 135.6 (+29.4) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2024 | LONG 80 – 76 UMES |
| Nov 16, 2023 | LONG 80 – 61 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 5-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#217) | -12.3 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#169) | -1.28 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#165) | -1.73 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#180) | 0.485 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 31.1% |
| 3PT% | 23.9% | 20.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 34.7% |
| TOV% | 11.7% | 30.4% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 37.8% | 11.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 60.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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