Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | UVM +150 COFC -178 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -9.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -5.7 (+3.3) | 138.0 (-1.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -5.8 (+3.2) | 136.4 (+0.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -6.7 (+2.3) | 133.4 (+3.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 15-3 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 10-4 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#125) | -7.0 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#78) | 0.31 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#72) | 0.46 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#26) | 0.740 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 21.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 13.9% |
Game Analysis
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