Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | NICH +100 DEN +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +6 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | NICH -2.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -1.5 (-7.5) | 155.8 (+20.2) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -1.4 (-7.4) | 155.7 (+20.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -3.4 (-2.6) | 156.5 (+19.5) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 82.1 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#72) | 3.3 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#57) | 0.02 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#66) | 0.08 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.738 (#43) | 0.500 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 44.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 26.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 44.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 48.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 10.3% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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