Betting Lines
| Spread | SEA -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SEA -1000 NAU +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +2 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | SEA -23.9 (-25.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEA -14.5 (-16.5) | 133.8 (-11.8) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEA -16.6 (-18.6) | 134.8 (-12.8) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEA -17.1 (-19.1) | 135.2 (-13.2) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEA | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | W4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#168) | -13.9 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#37) | -0.69 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#17) | -1.01 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.729 (#45) | 0.514 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEA | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 24.2% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 25.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 40.0% |
| TOV% | 25.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 17.5% |
| FT Rate | 35.5% | 13.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 62.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 59.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 40.2% |
Game Analysis
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