Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | OSU -4500 MRMK +1550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +24 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | OSU -5.8 (+18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -7.3 (+16.7) | 133.3 (-5.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -4.2 (+19.8) | 138.4 (-10.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -4.2 (+19.8) | 139.0 (-11.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -4.0 (+20.0) | 134.6 (-6.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-3 |
| Home | 15-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 64.6 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#201) | 2.9 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#206) | 0.90 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#197) | 1.17 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#102) | 0.300 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 22.2% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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