Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -450 HC +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +38 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -2.4 (+35.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -1.4 (+36.6) | 141.5 (-1.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -0.2 (+37.8) | 140.7 (-0.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -0.7 (+37.3) | 141.6 (-1.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -0.9 (+37.1) | 140.2 (-0.2) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 5-8 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#306) | -0.5 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.74 (#352) | -0.82 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.56 (#340) | -1.80 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#265) | 0.253 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.46 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 40.4% | 11.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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