Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | FOR -190 NORF +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -3.0 (+16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -2.2 (+15.2) | 138.7 (+2.3) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -1.8 (+14.8) | 137.8 (+3.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -1.2 (+14.2) | 140.6 (+0.4) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-3 |
| Home | 6-11 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#264) | -1.3 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#262) | 0.39 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#260) | 0.46 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.346 (#286) | 0.333 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 34.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 17.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 39.7% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 50.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.6% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 58.8% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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