Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Under |
| Money | MIA -355 UGA +278 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +11 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -7.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -6.5 (+4.5) | 150.1 (-3.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -4.1 (+6.9) | 147.2 (-0.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -5.2 (+5.8) | 149.8 (-2.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -3.8 (+7.2) | 152.2 (-5.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#118) | -4.2 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#95) | 0.26 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#100) | 0.35 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#104) | 0.657 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.5% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.5% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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