Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NAU +178 PFW -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +10 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -16.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -9.9 (-0.1) | 143.3 (+0.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -9.4 (-0.6) | 142.9 (+1.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -9.8 (-0.2) | 144.8 (-0.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -12.2 (+2.2) | 147.7 (-3.7) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#319) | 7.1 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#50) | 1.58 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#37) | 2.24 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.699 (#44) | 0.568 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 21.4% | 43.6% |
| REB / G | 27.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 10.9% |
| ORB% | 17.9% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 13.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.5% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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