Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA -600 JKST +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +20 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -14.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -9.6 (+10.4) | 145.9 (-21.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -13.6 (+6.4) | 145.4 (-21.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -14.6 (+5.4) | 146.1 (-22.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -13.5 (+6.5) | 146.3 (-22.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2022 | TLSA 85 – 79 JKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 6-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#189) | -5.9 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#132) | -1.78 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#136) | -2.70 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#232) | 0.229 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 50.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 40.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.1% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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