Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
Grand Canyon Lopes
76 – 72
FINAL Neutral Arizona Tip-Off
San Francisco Dons
Desert Diamond Arena (Neutral) · November 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread GCU -1.5 Home covered
Model Predictions
Spread Total GCU win
Actual GCU +4 148 Won
Massey GCU -0.5 (+3.5) — —
Massey Totals — 143.3 (+4.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 83% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 95% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SF -0.4 (+4.4) 140.3 (+7.7) 54% ✓
Baseline ML GCU -0.0 (+4.0) 141.5 (+6.5) 49% ✗
Baseline Plus ML GCU -2.4 (+1.6) 140.6 (+7.4) 56% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 19, 2021 GCU 49 – 48 SF
Dec 21, 2020 SF 68 – 65 GCU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GCU SF
Overall 30-5 23-11
Conference 17-3 11-5
Home 16-0 14-2
Away 8-3 6-6
Neutral 5-2 3-3
Last 5 2-0 1-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 77.8 76.2
Avg Pts Against 66.8 66.8
Massey 5.8 (#75) 5.3 (#80)
Bradley-Terry 1.48 (#65) -0.12 (#182)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.86 (#36) -0.03 (#173)
RPI 0.569 (#112) 0.344 (#296)
Shooting & Four Factors GCU SF
FG% 53.0% 50.5%
3PT% 34.2% 31.7%
REB / G 44.5 32.0
OREB / G 12.5 8.0
AST / TO 0.70 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 58.5% 56.5%
TOV% 20.3% 23.4%
ORB% 39.7% 30.8%
FT Rate 34.2% 19.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.8% 45.5%
Opp TOV% 22.4% 20.7%
DRB% 78.0% 80.0%
Opp FT Rate 10.0% 22.8%

Game Analysis

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