Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -1.5 Home covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -0.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -0.4 (+4.4) | 140.3 (+7.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -0.0 (+4.0) | 141.5 (+6.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -2.4 (+1.6) | 140.6 (+7.4) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2021 | GCU 49 – 48 SF |
| Dec 21, 2020 | SF 68 – 65 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 11-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#75) | 5.3 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#65) | -0.12 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#36) | -0.03 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#112) | 0.344 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.0% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.0% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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