Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Grand Canyon Lopes
49 – 48
FINAL Neutral Jerry Colangelo Classic
San Francisco Dons
Mortgage Matchup Center (Neutral) · December 19, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread SF -7.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total GCU win
Actual GCU +1 97 Won
Massey SF -4.9 (+5.9) — —
Massey Totals — 132.2 (-35.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 8% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 3% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SF -3.0 (+4.0) 134.1 (-37.1) 43% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML SF -3.9 (+4.9) 136.4 (-39.4) 33% ✗
Baseline ML SF -2.7 (+3.7) 136.0 (-39.0) 42% ✗
Baseline Plus ML SF -1.6 (+2.6) 133.8 (-36.8) 42% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 18, 2023 GCU 76 – 72 SF
Dec 21, 2020 SF 68 – 65 GCU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GCU SF
Overall 23-8 24-10
Conference 13-5 10-6
Home 15-2 14-4
Away 7-5 7-2
Neutral 2-1 3-4
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 70.4 76.3
Avg Pts Against 62.0 67.5
Massey 4.0 (#104) 8.9 (#52)
Bradley-Terry 1.28 (#75) 3.74 (#7)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.37 (#94) 4.79 (#11)
RPI 0.491 (#190) 0.658 (#13)
Shooting & Four Factors GCU SF
FG% 42.9% 48.7%
3PT% 34.8% 37.9%
REB / G 42.9 37.9
OREB / G 15.3 9.9
AST / TO 1.10 0.86
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.9% 58.0%
TOV% 18.0% 21.1%
ORB% 40.2% 31.6%
FT Rate 18.8% 20.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 42.2% 45.2%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 18.2%
DRB% 73.4% 77.8%
Opp FT Rate 23.0% 20.5%

Game Analysis

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