Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +1 | 97 | Won |
| Massey | SF -4.9 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-35.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -3.0 (+4.0) | 134.1 (-37.1) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -3.9 (+4.9) | 136.4 (-39.4) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -2.7 (+3.7) | 136.0 (-39.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -1.6 (+2.6) | 133.8 (-36.8) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | GCU 76 – 72 SF |
| Dec 21, 2020 | SF 68 – 65 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-8 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#104) | 8.9 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#75) | 3.74 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#94) | 4.79 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#190) | 0.658 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 42.9 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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