Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UNF +140 ME -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNF +9 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | UNF -2.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -0.0 (+9.0) | 139.4 (-14.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNF -0.9 (+8.1) | 143.6 (-18.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -0.8 (+8.2) | 143.0 (-18.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -0.3 (+9.3) | 142.8 (-17.8) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#302) | -0.2 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#282) | 0.53 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#328) | 1.29 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.329 (#302) | 0.470 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.7% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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