Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | OU -10000 RGV +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +24 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | OU -34.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -27.6 (-3.6) | 148.9 (+7.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -24.9 (-0.9) | 149.1 (+6.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -35.6 (-11.6) | 146.5 (+9.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -35.5 (-11.5) | 146.1 (+9.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-18 |
| Home | 14-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L14 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#9) | -10.2 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#84) | -1.83 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#80) | -3.38 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#137) | 0.410 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.0% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 17.1% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 41.3% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 35.7% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.9% | 59.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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