Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Lloyd Noble Center · November 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread OU -25.5 Away covered
O/U 153.5 Over
Money OU -10000 / RGV +3300
Model Predictions
Spread Total OU win
Actual OU +24 156 Won
Massey OU -34.5 (-10.5) — —
Massey Totals — 149.5 (+6.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 99% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ OU -27.6 (-3.6) 148.9 (+7.1) 91% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML OU -24.9 (-0.9) 149.1 (+6.9) 91% ✓
Baseline ML OU -35.6 (-11.6) 146.5 (+9.5) 91% ✓
Baseline Plus ML OU -35.5 (-11.5) 146.1 (+9.9) 91% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings OU RGV
Overall 20-12 6-25
Conference 8-10 2-18
Home 14-4 5-9
Away 3-6 1-13
Neutral 3-2 0-3
Last 5 3-0 0-2
Streak L2 L14
Avg Pts For 75.4 68.2
Avg Pts Against 68.8 80.7
Massey 15.5 (#9) -10.2 (#330)
Bradley-Terry 1.20 (#84) -1.83 (#329)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.82 (#80) -3.38 (#339)
RPI 0.544 (#137) 0.410 (#263)
Shooting & Four Factors OU RGV
FG% 52.0% 40.3%
3PT% 34.7% 17.1%
REB / G 42.7 32.0
OREB / G 12.7 12.5
AST / TO 1.05 0.86
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 59.4% 42.6%
TOV% 17.9% 22.3%
ORB% 41.3% 29.4%
FT Rate 35.7% 18.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 35.9% 59.9%
Opp TOV% 21.1% 22.8%
DRB% 72.0% 60.0%
Opp FT Rate 14.4% 23.7%

Game Analysis

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