Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Tom Gola Arena · November 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread LAS -13.5 Away covered
O/U 142.5 Over
Money LAS -1200 / USI +900
Model Predictions
Spread Total LAS win
Actual LAS +1 157 Won
Massey LAS -16.8 (-15.8) — —
Massey Totals — 139.9 (+17.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 100% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LAS -11.1 (-10.1) 134.5 (+22.5) 86% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML LAS -11.5 (-10.5) 138.8 (+18.2) 84% ✓
Baseline ML LAS -13.2 (-12.2) 136.7 (+20.3) 83% ✓
Baseline Plus ML LAS -13.6 (-12.6) 133.9 (+23.1) 86% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LAS USI
Overall 16-17 8-24
Conference 6-12 5-13
Home 11-6 5-10
Away 3-10 3-13
Neutral 2-1 0-1
Last 5 3-0 0-3
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 71.6 66.9
Avg Pts Against 74.1 75.0
Massey -2.3 (#222) -10.3 (#331)
Bradley-Terry 1.38 (#70) -3.88 (#360)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.80 (#82) -6.28 (#359)
RPI 0.645 (#64) 0.318 (#307)
Shooting & Four Factors LAS USI
FG% 45.0% 38.5%
3PT% 35.4% 25.4%
REB / G 33.7 39.0
OREB / G 10.3 11.7
AST / TO 1.81 0.77
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.8% 42.9%
TOV% 13.5% 22.4%
ORB% 29.2% 28.7%
FT Rate 22.2% 13.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.4% 46.4%
Opp TOV% 21.3% 13.4%
DRB% 63.1% 71.9%
Opp FT Rate 21.4% 31.9%

Game Analysis

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