Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | LAS -1200 USI +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +1 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | LAS -16.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -11.1 (-10.1) | 134.5 (+22.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -11.5 (-10.5) | 138.8 (+18.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -13.2 (-12.2) | 136.7 (+20.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -13.6 (-12.6) | 133.9 (+23.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-10 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#222) | -10.3 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#70) | -3.88 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#82) | -6.28 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#64) | 0.318 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 13.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 63.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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