That man could give a fuck about the grin on your face as you walk by randy as a goat. "Never Say Never" - Romeo Void
Western Hall · November 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread WIU -1.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Over
Money WIU -110 / SOU +110
Model Predictions
Spread Total WIU win
Actual WIU +8 168 Won
Massey SOU -1.7 (+9.7) — —
Massey Totals — 154.2 (+13.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 26% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 12% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML SOU -1.5 (+9.5) 148.6 (+19.4) 40% ✗
Baseline ML SOU -1.7 (+9.7) 147.9 (+20.1) 37% ✗
Baseline Plus ML SOU -3.4 (+11.4) 153.4 (+14.6) 48% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings WIU SOU
Overall 21-12 18-14
Conference 13-5 12-6
Home 10-5 11-2
Away 10-6 7-11
Neutral 1-1 0-1
Last 5 0-2 1-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 66.0 67.9
Avg Pts Against 67.4 70.6
Massey -11.0 (#337) -0.5 (#190)
Bradley-Terry -1.48 (#300) 1.22 (#83)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.22 (#295) 1.86 (#77)
RPI 0.229 (#344) 0.699 (#39)
Shooting & Four Factors WIU SOU
FG% 31.5% 44.1%
3PT% 22.2% 38.0%
REB / G 47.0 27.7
OREB / G 16.5 8.7
AST / TO 0.55 1.10
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 36.2% 51.3%
TOV% 21.3% 18.0%
ORB% 32.7% 23.2%
FT Rate 20.8% 13.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.5% 60.4%
Opp TOV% 9.2% 21.6%
DRB% 69.3% 58.2%
Opp FT Rate 23.2% 30.8%

Game Analysis

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