Betting Lines
| Spread | WIU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | WIU -110 SOU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIU +8 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -1.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -1.5 (+9.5) | 148.6 (+19.4) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -1.7 (+9.7) | 147.9 (+20.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -3.4 (+11.4) | 153.4 (+14.6) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 10-6 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#337) | -0.5 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#300) | 1.22 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#295) | 1.86 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.229 (#344) | 0.699 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 27.7 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 36.2% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 13.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 60.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.2% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 58.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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