Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
| Money | SDSU +115 SMC -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +25 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -8.8 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -5.9 (+19.1) | 132.8 (+0.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -6.2 (+18.8) | 133.8 (-0.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -6.8 (+18.2) | 134.6 (-1.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2022 | SMC 68 – 61 SDSU |
| Dec 18, 2021 | SDSU 63 – 53 SMC |
| Dec 23, 2020 | SDSU 74 – 49 SMC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-1 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 9-0 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 60.2 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#48) | -0.5 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#118) | -1.25 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#98) | -1.36 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#155) | 0.429 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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