Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | SMC +130 SDSU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +25 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -0.9 (-25.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -0.3 (-24.7) | 126.1 (-3.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -0.4 (-25.4) | 130.2 (-7.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -0.7 (-25.7) | 130.3 (-7.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -0.1 (-24.9) | 129.3 (-6.3) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | SDSU 79 – 54 SMC |
| Dec 10, 2022 | SMC 68 – 61 SDSU |
| Dec 18, 2021 | SDSU 63 – 53 SMC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 23-5 |
| Conference | 4-6 | 14-3 |
| Home | 9-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-3 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 61.9 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#64) | 7.0 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#54) | 1.63 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#85) | 2.29 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#75) | 0.594 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 25.4% |
| DRB% | 78.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.