Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -110 SMC +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +7 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -5.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -3.7 (-3.3) | 129.0 (+0.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -3.0 (-4.0) | 132.5 (-3.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -2.8 (-4.2) | 132.2 (-3.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -2.3 (-4.7) | 135.3 (-6.3) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | SDSU 79 – 54 SMC |
| Dec 18, 2021 | SDSU 63 – 53 SMC |
| Dec 23, 2020 | SDSU 74 – 49 SMC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-2 |
| Home | 15-1 | 16-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 60.0 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#57) | 13.4 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#48) | 1.60 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#51) | 2.65 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#30) | 0.602 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 80.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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