Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 118.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +10 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -3.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -2.2 (-12.2) | 122.0 (-6.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -3.0 (-13.0) | 121.2 (-5.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -2.3 (-12.3) | 123.1 (-7.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -3.1 (-13.1) | 124.4 (-8.4) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | SDSU 79 – 54 SMC |
| Dec 10, 2022 | SMC 68 – 61 SDSU |
| Dec 23, 2020 | SDSU 74 – 49 SMC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 13-4 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.3 | 58.1 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#55) | 5.2 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#20) | 1.45 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.65 (#24) | 1.92 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#31) | 0.582 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 81.4% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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