Space travel's in my blood. "Another Girl, Another Planet" - The Only Ones
Saint Mary's Gaels
53 – 63
FINAL Neutral Jerry Colangelo Classic
San Diego State Aztecs
Mortgage Matchup Center (Neutral) · December 18, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread SMC -1.5 Away covered
O/U 118.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total SMC win
Actual SDSU +10 116 Lost
Massey SMC -3.1 (-13.1) — —
Massey Totals — 112.2 (+3.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 80% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 85% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SMC -2.2 (-12.2) 122.0 (-6.0) 52% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML SMC -3.0 (-13.0) 121.2 (-5.2) 62% ✗
Baseline ML SMC -2.3 (-12.3) 123.1 (-7.1) 56% ✗
Baseline Plus ML SMC -3.1 (-13.1) 124.4 (-8.4) 58% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 18, 2023 SDSU 79 – 54 SMC
Dec 10, 2022 SMC 68 – 61 SDSU
Dec 23, 2020 SDSU 74 – 49 SMC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SMC SDSU
Overall 26-8 23-9
Conference 12-3 13-4
Home 16-0 14-1
Away 6-4 5-5
Neutral 4-4 4-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 69.5 65.4
Avg Pts Against 61.3 58.1
Massey 8.3 (#55) 5.2 (#90)
Bradley-Terry 2.85 (#20) 1.45 (#71)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.65 (#24) 1.92 (#74)
RPI 0.615 (#31) 0.582 (#61)
Shooting & Four Factors SMC SDSU
FG% 46.3% 41.1%
3PT% 34.3% 29.3%
REB / G 33.5 35.4
OREB / G 8.0 9.8
AST / TO 1.16 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.0% 45.9%
TOV% 18.8% 19.0%
ORB% 26.7% 28.5%
FT Rate 16.9% 24.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.8% 43.4%
Opp TOV% 18.8% 20.1%
DRB% 81.4% 69.8%
Opp FT Rate 19.0% 16.7%

Game Analysis

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