Betting Lines
| Spread | SHU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SHU -140 L-MD +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHU +15 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | SHU -7.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-38.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHU -5.0 (+10.0) | 148.9 (-31.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHU -4.2 (+10.8) | 146.3 (-29.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHU -4.1 (+10.9) | 148.1 (-31.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHU -5.2 (+9.8) | 149.6 (-32.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHU | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-5 | 2-11 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#122) | -4.4 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#179) | -0.95 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#189) | -1.62 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.277 (#333) | 0.297 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHU | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 42.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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