I love it when you call me Big Poppa "Big Poppa" - Notorious B.I.G.
Little Rock Trojans
93 – 98
FINAL Neutral Capitol Classic
Northern Illinois Huskies
GSU Convocation Center (Neutral) · November 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread NIU -3.5 Away covered
O/U 159.5 Over
Money LR +170 / NIU -163
Model Predictions
Spread Total LR win
Actual NIU +5 191 Lost
Massey NIU -6.3 (+1.3) — —
Massey Totals — 150.5 (+40.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 20% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 11% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ NIU -4.4 (-0.6) 154.0 (+37.0) 34% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML NIU -4.1 (-0.9) 145.5 (+45.5) 32% ✓
Baseline ML NIU -3.7 (-1.3) 148.0 (+43.0) 34% ✓
Baseline Plus ML NIU -4.7 (-0.3) 151.4 (+39.6) 33% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 22, 2021 LR 67 – 60 NIU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LR NIU
Overall 21-13 11-20
Conference 14-4 5-13
Home 14-4 5-9
Away 6-6 5-11
Neutral 1-3 1-0
Last 5 1-1 2-1
Streak L2 W1
Avg Pts For 77.3 71.4
Avg Pts Against 72.5 79.2
Massey -1.5 (#208) 4.8 (#87)
Bradley-Terry 0.57 (#133) 1.93 (#36)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.77 (#139) 2.88 (#35)
RPI 0.521 (#160) 0.574 (#108)
Shooting & Four Factors LR NIU
FG% 38.2% 43.8%
3PT% 25.7% 29.0%
REB / G 33.5 39.7
OREB / G 12.5 10.7
AST / TO 0.73 0.95
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 41.9% 49.2%
TOV% 17.5% 17.4%
ORB% 29.8% 29.4%
FT Rate 31.7% 26.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.6% 45.0%
Opp TOV% 24.9% 12.0%
DRB% 54.5% 64.0%
Opp FT Rate 27.5% 16.4%

Game Analysis

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