Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | LR +170 NIU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +5 | 191 | Lost |
| Massey | NIU -6.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (+40.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIU -4.4 (-0.6) | 154.0 (+37.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -4.1 (-0.9) | 145.5 (+45.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -3.7 (-1.3) | 148.0 (+43.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -4.7 (-0.3) | 151.4 (+39.6) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2021 | LR 67 – 60 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#208) | 4.8 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#133) | 1.93 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#139) | 2.88 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#160) | 0.574 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.7% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.9% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 54.5% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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