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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–14 on winners spread MAE 9.4 58 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Navy @ UC San Diego +15.0 141.0 91% 55–73 ✓
Elon @ Holy Cross -3.1 157.7 39% 83–69 ✓
St. Thomas @ California Baptist +10.5 125.7 83% 62–66 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Santa Clara +25.4 150.1 99% 63–65 ✓
Jacksonville State @ North Alabama +13.7 141.3 89% 59–61 ✓
Texas Southern @ Creighton +35.5 138.8 100% 50–82 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +14.5 175.6 91% 100–81 ✗
Northern Colorado @ New Mexico State +9.8 142.0 81% 71–76 ✓
Morgan State @ BYU +41.2 164.2 100% 50–93 ✓
Portland @ Nevada +25.2 141.3 99% 83–108 ✓
Wyoming @ Furman +6.0 149.4 71% 78–71 ✗
Oakland @ Drake +3.8 142.2 64% 77–85 ✓
Southern Miss @ Utah Valley +4.2 130.0 65% 65–67 ✓
Holy Cross @ IU Indianapolis -0.8 137.8 47% 74–61 ✓
Providence @ Georgia -4.7 130.9 33% 71–64 ✓
North Texas @ Towson +1.6 118.1 56% 65–39 ✗
UConn @ Indiana -19.5 154.9 4% 77–57 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ South Alabama +1.4 121.9 55% 74–86 ✓
UT Martin @ Prairie View A&M -0.7 151.8 47% 66–78 ✗
Manhattan @ Central Connecticut +6.3 135.2 72% 67–63 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +15.5 142.3 92% 64–76 ✓
Boise State @ Clemson +11.5 131.1 85% 68–85 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ UMBC +9.9 144.7 82% 79–94 ✓
Charleston @ Coastal Carolina +9.6 155.1 81% 80–72 ✗
Northwestern @ Mississippi State +8.9 129.9 79% 57–66 ✓
Weber State @ Colgate -7.6 122.8 24% 55–57 ✗
Grambling @ Iowa State +39.9 145.5 100% 37–92 ✓
Lindenwood @ William & Mary +11.0 155.1 84% 71–60 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Stephen F. Austin +11.5 155.1 85% 76–86 ✓
Little Rock @ Georgia State +11.0 156.7 84% 77–88 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Chattanooga +27.2 140.1 99% 63–68 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cincinnati +12.0 142.4 86% 66–90 ✓
Queens University @ Drexel +13.0 131.8 88% 52–62 ✓
Northeastern @ East Carolina +6.4 157.4 72% 82–76 ✗
UAlbany @ Quinnipiac +6.8 160.2 73% 82–85 ✓
Kansas State @ Miami +5.3 164.6 69% 83–91 ✓
Elon @ Winthrop +7.0 158.5 74% 70–78 ✓
Cornell @ Cal State Fullerton -13.6 147.7 11% 88–70 ✓
LSU @ Wake Forest +2.4 149.9 59% 86–80 ✗
Yale @ Gardner-Webb -5.4 137.4 31% 71–70 ✓
Rhode Island @ Washington State +6.0 150.2 71% 57–78 ✓
Texas @ Louisville -15.1 143.1 9% 81–80 ✓
Omaha @ Air Force +11.8 140.4 86% 56–58 ✓
Western Michigan @ Ohio State +17.0 146.8 94% 56–73 ✓
DePaul @ San Francisco +5.6 132.9 69% 54–70 ✓
American University @ Georgetown +14.6 144.1 91% 83–88 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Georgia Southern -7.3 146.4 25% 96–92 ✓
Wofford @ Virginia Tech +16.8 166.0 94% 76–98 ✓
Marshall @ Utah State +4.1 154.6 65% 60–83 ✓
Northern Iowa @ South Florida +7.6 151.3 76% 65–74 ✓
Charlotte @ George Mason +0.2 124.1 51% 54–49 ✗
Portland State @ St. Thomas -13.2 120.3 11% 70–76 ✗
Vermont @ Liberty +8.8 144.7 79% 61–71 ✓
Fordham @ Abilene Christian +3.1 147.3 61% 45–59 ✓
UT Arlington @ Arizona +27.9 150.9 99% 56–101 ✓
Alcorn State @ Michigan State +19.8 140.7 96% 49–81 ✓
Jackson State @ Missouri +20.3 144.4 97% 73–72 ✗
St. John's @ Utah +14.4 149.6 90% 91–82 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.