Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -175 KSU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +8 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -5.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -3.7 (+4.3) | 156.9 (+17.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -4.0 (+4.0) | 155.2 (+18.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -4.0 (+4.0) | 155.0 (+19.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -3.6 (+4.4) | 157.1 (+16.9) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L10 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#68) | 0.5 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#37) | 0.39 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#42) | 0.00 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#61) | 0.570 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 44.7% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.8% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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