Betting Lines
| Spread | CBU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | CBU -300 STMN +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CBU +4 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | CBU -11.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CBU -8.2 (-4.2) | 128.5 (-0.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CBU -7.7 (-3.7) | 133.2 (-5.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CBU -9.0 (-5.0) | 130.8 (-2.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CBU -7.9 (-3.9) | 128.4 (-0.4) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CBU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#205) | -4.7 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#207) | -2.04 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#201) | -3.55 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#226) | 0.240 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CBU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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