Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | DREX -300 QUC +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +10 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -13.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -7.4 (+2.6) | 134.0 (-20.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -8.3 (+1.7) | 132.7 (-18.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -9.6 (+0.4) | 132.4 (-18.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -9.3 (+0.7) | 134.2 (-20.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 82.6 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#158) | -4.5 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#197) | -0.39 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#229) | -0.97 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#157) | 0.364 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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