Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -28.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +45 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -28.0 (+17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -24.9 (+20.1) | 152.0 (+5.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -20.8 (+24.2) | 150.7 (+6.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -26.0 (+19.0) | 152.2 (+4.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -26.5 (+18.5) | 153.6 (+3.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 22.4 (#1) | 2.7 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#9) | -0.68 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.82 (#8) | -1.00 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#56) | 0.354 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.4% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.2 | 18.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 46.9% | 43.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 9.7% |
| DRB% | 82.4% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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