Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | USA -150 SIUE +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +12 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | USA -0.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.6 (+38.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -0.8 (+11.2) | 136.0 (+24.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -2.1 (+9.9) | 129.4 (+30.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -0.7 (+11.3) | 132.0 (+28.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -0.6 (+11.4) | 130.4 (+29.6) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2021 | USA 84 – 69 SIUE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#283) | 1.7 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#205) | 1.80 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#216) | 2.55 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#204) | 0.620 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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