Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +15 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | USA -13.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -11.6 (+3.4) | 137.2 (+15.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -12.0 (+3.0) | 140.0 (+13.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -12.2 (+2.8) | 139.0 (+14.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -11.3 (+3.7) | 139.1 (+13.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2023 | USA 86 – 74 SIUE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#101) | -3.9 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#108) | -1.00 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#124) | -1.78 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#41) | 0.453 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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