Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -8000 ALCN +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +32 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -20.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -17.9 (+14.1) | 143.4 (-13.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -14.8 (+17.2) | 139.9 (-9.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -18.0 (+14.0) | 140.2 (-10.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -17.2 (+14.8) | 140.9 (-10.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-14 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#82) | -6.9 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#231) | -2.05 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#200) | -3.39 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#136) | 0.260 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 21.4% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 61.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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