Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
| Money | UMBC -170 L-MD +143 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +15 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -9.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -5.5 (+9.5) | 146.4 (+26.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -6.1 (+8.9) | 142.1 (+30.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -6.1 (+8.9) | 143.4 (+29.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -6.5 (+8.5) | 146.6 (+26.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2022 | UMBC 72 – 69 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-9 | 2-11 |
| Away | 5-12 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#231) | -3.8 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#239) | -1.14 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#223) | -1.87 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#263) | 0.352 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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