Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD +180 UMBC -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +3 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -1.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -2.5 (-0.5) | 138.3 (+2.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -1.0 (-2.0) | 141.4 (-0.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -0.9 (-2.1) | 143.8 (-2.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -1.7 (-1.3) | 141.7 (-0.7) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2023 | UMBC 94 – 79 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#319) | -1.9 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#295) | -0.20 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#304) | -0.26 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#321) | 0.452 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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