Mississippi State
Bulldogs
66
–
57
FINAL
Neutral
Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off
Northwestern
Wildcats
Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -165 NU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +9 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -11.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -5.2 (+3.8) | 127.2 (-4.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -6.7 (+2.3) | 129.9 (-6.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -6.9 (+2.1) | 128.5 (-5.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -4.9 (+4.1) | 125.5 (-2.5) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#17) | 2.2 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#12) | 2.57 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.78 (#11) | 3.71 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.917 (#1) | 0.726 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 26.3% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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