Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -30.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | CREI -20000 TXSO +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +32 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -35.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -28.6 (+3.4) | 142.8 (-10.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -25.3 (+6.7) | 139.9 (-7.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -33.1 (-1.1) | 140.7 (-8.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -30.3 (+1.7) | 141.1 (-9.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#8) | -10.3 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#57) | -1.17 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#60) | -1.99 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.692 (#26) | 0.448 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.3% | 29.7% |
| 3PT% | 42.1% | 18.8% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 67.2% | 33.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 10.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 82.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.9% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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