Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | NEV -1100 PORT +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +25 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -25.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+49.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -19.8 (+5.2) | 153.9 (+37.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -18.6 (+6.4) | 143.1 (+47.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -23.0 (+2.0) | 143.4 (+47.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -22.6 (+2.4) | 147.6 (+43.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#16) | -3.6 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#8) | 0.53 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.91 (#6) | 1.35 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.689 (#27) | 0.422 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 24.5% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 10.7% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 42.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.2% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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