Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Hilton Coliseum · November 19, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread ISU -29.0 Home covered
O/U 134.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total ISU win
Actual ISU +55 129 Won
Massey ISU -39.7 (+15.3)
Massey Totals 145.3 (-16.3)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Efficiency Plus ML ISU -26.1 (+28.9) 142.3 (-13.3) 91%
Baseline Tuned ML ISU -26.3 (+28.7) 145.2 (-16.2) 91%
Baseline ML ISU -37.7 (+17.3) 144.7 (-15.7) 91%
Baseline Plus ML ISU -41.6 (+13.4) 147.6 (-18.6) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 7, 2025 ISU 10262 GRAM
Nov 21, 2021 ISU 8247 GRAM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ISU GRAM
Overall 29-8 21-15
Conference 13-5 14-4
Home 18-0 9-3
Away 5-5 7-9
Neutral 6-3 5-3
Last 5 3-0 0-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.3 65.4
Avg Pts Against 61.5 69.5
Massey 21.5 (#3) -9.9 (#334)
Bradley-Terry 0.95 (#104) -1.95 (#326)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.34 (#102) -2.95 (#327)
RPI 0.448 (#232) 0.365 (#298)
Shooting & Four Factors ISU GRAM
FG% 51.3% 40.0%
3PT% 37.3% 25.7%
REB / G 40.7 25.5
OREB / G 13.3 7.0
AST / TO 2.67 0.47
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.1% 44.1%
TOV% 9.9% 20.6%
ORB% 37.4% 21.9%
FT Rate 26.4% 26.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 41.1% 56.6%
Opp TOV% 30.3% 17.7%
DRB% 81.2% 64.9%
Opp FT Rate 25.9% 24.0%

Game Analysis

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