Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | GAST -333 LR +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +11 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -10.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -5.7 (+5.3) | 155.9 (+9.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -6.4 (+4.6) | 149.8 (+15.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -6.6 (+4.4) | 150.4 (+14.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -5.9 (+5.1) | 153.8 (+11.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2023 | GAST 93 – 90 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#176) | -1.9 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#227) | 0.22 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#219) | 0.45 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.348 (#307) | 0.514 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 61.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 39.3% |
Game Analysis
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