Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
Georgia State Panthers
88 – 77
FINAL Capitol Classic
Little Rock Trojans
GSU Convocation Center · November 19, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread GAST -7.5 Home covered
O/U 154.5 Over
Money GAST -333 / LR +320
Model Predictions
Spread Total GAST win
Actual GAST +11 165 Won
Massey GAST -10.7 (+0.3) — —
Massey Totals — 157.6 (+7.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 68% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 70% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ GAST -5.7 (+5.3) 155.9 (+9.1) 74% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML GAST -6.4 (+4.6) 149.8 (+15.2) 72% ✓
Baseline ML GAST -6.6 (+4.4) 150.4 (+14.6) 76% ✓
Baseline Plus ML GAST -5.9 (+5.1) 153.8 (+11.2) 67% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 22, 2023 GAST 93 – 90 LR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GAST LR
Overall 14-17 21-13
Conference 8-10 14-4
Home 9-5 14-4
Away 5-11 6-6
Neutral 0-1 1-3
Last 5 1-2 1-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 74.4 77.3
Avg Pts Against 76.4 72.5
Massey 0.4 (#176) -1.9 (#221)
Bradley-Terry -0.62 (#227) 0.22 (#159)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.76 (#219) 0.45 (#151)
RPI 0.348 (#307) 0.514 (#168)
Shooting & Four Factors GAST LR
FG% 40.6% 40.9%
3PT% 30.4% 26.9%
REB / G 39.7 32.3
OREB / G 15.3 12.0
AST / TO 1.18 1.37
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.7% 45.5%
TOV% 12.8% 13.2%
ORB% 34.8% 28.1%
FT Rate 20.8% 27.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.0% 54.8%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 23.0%
DRB% 70.9% 61.0%
Opp FT Rate 31.1% 39.3%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.