Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | LR +105 GAST -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +3 | 183 | Lost |
| Massey | LR -5.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.5 (+20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -1.5 (-4.5) | 152.2 (+30.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -3.5 (-6.5) | 152.8 (+30.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LR -3.8 (-6.8) | 156.0 (+27.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -4.3 (-7.3) | 157.4 (+25.6) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2023 | GAST 88 – 77 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#213) | 0.8 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#201) | -0.23 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#189) | -0.17 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#255) | 0.395 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 11.9% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.0% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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