Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | AF -400 OMA +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +2 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | AF -12.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -9.0 (-7.0) | 135.9 (-21.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -9.5 (-7.5) | 138.0 (-24.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -10.7 (-8.7) | 138.7 (-24.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -8.7 (-6.7) | 136.1 (-22.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 7-9 |
| Home | 4-12 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#129) | -1.9 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#119) | -1.20 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#144) | -1.69 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#125) | 0.396 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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