Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
| Money | SFA +110 LMU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +10 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -11.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -5.4 (+4.6) | 150.9 (+11.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -7.9 (+2.1) | 146.8 (+15.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -8.1 (+1.9) | 149.7 (+12.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -6.5 (+3.5) | 149.6 (+12.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#26) | -0.7 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#153) | -1.69 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#136) | -2.16 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#236) | 0.311 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.0% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.3% | 59.3% |
| TOV% | 28.0% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 60.2% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 43.0% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.