Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | HC +100 ELON +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +14 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | ELON -1.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -1.3 (-12.7) | 146.0 (+6.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -1.8 (-12.2) | 148.3 (+3.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -1.5 (-12.5) | 149.7 (+2.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -1.7 (-12.3) | 146.0 (+6.0) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 5-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-14 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#306) | -6.0 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#292) | 0.02 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.82 (#321) | -0.37 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.340 (#313) | 0.414 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 46.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.5% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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