Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ -8000 JKST +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | MIZ -21.0 (-22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -17.4 (-18.4) | 140.4 (+4.6) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -13.5 (-14.5) | 142.8 (+2.2) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -16.6 (-17.6) | 143.6 (+1.4) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -17.7 (-18.7) | 145.2 (-0.2) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 0-18 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-11 | 6-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L19 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#93) | -8.2 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#36) | -2.03 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#40) | -2.96 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.727 (#16) | 0.317 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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